The size of the average Bhutanese family is getting smaller.
Bhutanese families were having fewer children and the numbers were likely to shrink even further in the years to come, according to officials of the National Statistical Bureau. According to the bureau, Bhutanese women in their prime reproductive age were giving birth to fewer children than in the past.
On an average women at present were giving birth to about 3.6 children in their reproductive life (15 to 49 years). This is expected to drop to 2 children by 2020 and 1.8 by 2030.
Just a few decades earlier a Bhutanese woman gave birth to an average of five to seven children. The drop in births started about 15 years back, according to NSB officials.
According to the 2006 labour force survey, carried out by the employment department, the 10-24 age group had a population which was higher by 22,056 than the population in the 0-9 age group.
The survey report has recommended that birth control be stopped immediately for at least five years to bridge the gap but bureau officials say that there are various factors influencing the age pattern.
“The number of births has reduced but it is not because of birth control alone,� said Sangay Tempa, chief statistical officer of NSB.
There were direct and indirect interventions such as the health programmes like family planning, improved health facilities and services, education access and the gradual transition of country from an agrarian society to a developing society.
“Improvement of health facilities has reduced infant mortality and therefore, even though a couple chooses to have only two children the survival of their children is almost assured,� said Sangay Tenzin. “In the past having more children was some sort of a provision or a replacement if some died.�
A housewife in Thimphu, who gave birth to eight children, said that three of her children died. “Because of that I did not use any contraceptives though it was available,� she said.
At present foregoing children was an opportunity cost for most modern parents, NSB officials said. Having children would mean foregoing a lot of things like employment and income.
Even the marriageable age was moving backwards. Both men and women were marrying much later than their parents did.
Choden, 28, has been married for almost three years but she does not have children. “We want to provide the best but before we have a child we have to be financially secure,� she said.
NSB officials said that in the past women married and gave birth when they were barely out of their teens, but now most girls were enrolled in school and marriage was out of question for most. Today Bhutanese women usually married at around 24 or 25 years and gave birth between 24 to 29 years.
The possible implication of the decrease in birth was that the labour force participation might decrease if the current trend continued, according to employment department’s labour market information division (LMID) officials. “It would affect productivity of the economy,� said the head of LMID, Karma Lhendup.
But NSB’s chief statistical officer said that such situation would arise only in the long run. The most immediate effects felt would be from the increased life expectancy rate achieved through better medical facilities.
Older people, who would have died otherwise, would still be in the labour force, 15 to 64 years, while the younger population will keep adding on to the force.
Older people would dominate the population in the years to come, officials said. At present 50 percent of the population was below 22 years but by 2030 it is assumed that 50 percent would be below 31 years.
The NSB has also estimated that by 2020 the population of 0-4 age group would fall from 9.9 percent (in 2005) to 9.3 percent and 7.0 percent in 2030.
But the workforce population (15-64 age group) would continue to increase from 62.3 percent in 2005 to 70.6 percent by 2030.
“This basically means that more jobs would need to be created within the next two to three decades,� NSB officials said. Source: Kuenselonline
